{"id":22874,"date":"2026-01-15T07:00:21","date_gmt":"2026-01-15T12:00:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.batirente.com\/?p=22874"},"modified":"2026-01-15T17:19:50","modified_gmt":"2026-01-15T22:19:50","slug":"markets-at-a-glance-q4-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.batirente.com\/en\/markets-at-a-glance-q4-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Markets at a glance \u2013 2025 highlights"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>To help you better understand the performance of funds presented in your quarterly statement, Jean\u2011Fran\u00e7ois Dumais*, Investment Strategy Manager at the B\u00e2tirente financial services firm, takes a look back at\u00a0the economic and market highlights of 2025.<\/strong><\/p>\n<h2>The economy in 2025<\/h2>\n<p><strong>Inflation<br \/>\n<\/strong>As of November\u00a030, 2025, the inflation rate had eased to 2.2% in Canada, moving closer to its 2% target after having peaked at 8.1% in the summer of 2022. In the United States, the inflation rate stood at 2.7% on the same date.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Key interest rates<br \/>\n<\/strong>Since the end of 2024, the Bank of Canada has lowered its policy rate by 0.25% four times, bringing it from 3.25% down to 2.25%. No additional cuts are expected in 2026, as the Bank appears intent on limiting the risk of renewed inflationary pressures.<\/p>\n<p>In the United States, the Federal Reserve (Fed) has reduced its key interest rate three times by 0.25%, moving it from 4.5% to 3.75%. Further cuts are being considered in 2026, despite inflation remaining high. Pressure from the US president to continue easing could also shape future inflation dynamics.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Recession or no recession?<br \/>\n<\/strong>Canada\u2019s economic growth is slowing, with its gross domestic product (GDP) increasing by 1.2% year over year. However, a recession still appears unlikely: the labour market remains strong, and most economists expect positive growth in 2026.<\/p>\n<p>In the United States, economic growth remains solid, with GDP rising by more than 4%. There too, the likelihood of a recession remains low.<\/p>\n<h2>Markets in 2025<\/h2>\n<p><strong>Equities<br \/>\n<\/strong>The economic backdrop outlined above translated into notably strong market performance.<\/p>\n<p>The global all-country equity index delivered a robust return of 16.6% (in Canadian dollars), driven largely by exceptional results outside the US. Developed markets\u2019 equities (Europe and Asia) posted gains of 25.7% (in Canadian dollars), while emerging markets\u2019 equities reached 27.3% (in Canadian dollars).<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, Canada\u2019s main equity index (S&amp;P\/TSX) stood out with an impressive 31.7% return, propelled primarily by the remarkable surge in gold and silver stocks, which advanced by 144.5%.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Bonds<br \/>\n<\/strong>Short-term bond yields declined, largely due to key interest rate cuts by central banks and concerns about a potential economic slowdown. As a result, the FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index posted a positive return of 2.6%.<\/p>\n<h2>2026 market outlook<\/h2>\n<p>The United States could have a significant influence on financial markets in 2026, with Donald\u00a0Trump\u2019s presidency expected to introduce some volatility.<\/p>\n<p>Key risks to monitor include:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>After three consecutive years of strong performance, equity markets valuations are high.<\/li>\n<li>Midterm elections will be held in the United States. In the past, stock market returns have been weaker around this time.<\/li>\n<li>Sustained pressure to lower the key interest rate could contribute to renewed inflation.<\/li>\n<li>The US public debt level remains high.<\/li>\n<li>Several geopolitical factors remain a concern, including Venezuela, Greenland, Taiwan, tariffs-related tensions, and the conflict in Ukraine.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>In the current market environment, adopting a portfolio diversification strategy, such as the one offered by B\u00e2tirente Funds, is essential.<\/p>\n<p><em>Sources: Bloomberg and<\/em>\u00a0<em>Desjardins\u00a0Financial Security<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>*<\/em><em>Jean-Fran\u00e7ois\u00a0Dumais has worked as an Investment Strategy Manager at B\u00e2tirente since 2019. Along with a Master of Business Administration (MBA) degree (Finance specialization), he has over 20\u00a0years\u2019 experience in financial markets.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>To help you better understand the performance of funds presented in your quarterly statement, Jean\u2011Fran\u00e7ois Dumais, Investment Strategy Manager at the B\u00e2tirente financial services firm, takes a look back at\u00a0the economic and market highlights of 2025.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":9104,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[25],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-22874","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-your-money"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - 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