{"id":23098,"date":"2026-04-13T13:00:21","date_gmt":"2026-04-13T17:00:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.batirente.com\/?p=23098"},"modified":"2026-04-13T14:02:53","modified_gmt":"2026-04-13T18:02:53","slug":"our-funds-at-a-glance-q1-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.batirente.com\/en\/our-funds-at-a-glance-q1-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Our funds at a glance"},"content":{"rendered":"

Jean-Fran\u00e7ois Dumais*, Investment Strategy Manager at the B\u00e2tirente financial services firm, shares our funds\u2019 performance along with his insights on the economy and financial markets. This edition provides an update for the first quarter of 2026 and discusses the potential impacts of the war in Iran.<\/strong><\/p>\n

The economy in 2026 <\/strong><\/h2>\n

Inflation
\n<\/strong>On February 28, 2026, Canada\u2019s inflation rate stood at 1.8%. This rate was below the 2% target, after peaking at 8.1% during the summer of 2022. In the United States, the inflation rate was 2.4% on the same date. It should be noted that inflation could rise significantly due to the consequences of the conflict in Iran.<\/p>\n

Policy rates
\n<\/strong>Since the end of 2024, the Bank of Canada lowered its policy rate by 0.25% four times, bringing it from 3.25% down to 2.25%.\u00a0Due to hostilities in Iran, the market now anticipates increases in the key interest rate.<\/p>\n

In the United States, the Federal Reserve (Fed) reduced its policy rate by 0.25% on three occasions, decreasing it from 4.50% to 3.75%. Although further reductions had been considered for 2026, this prospect is no longer on the table given the potential inflationary risks stemming from the war in Iran.<\/p>\n

Is a recession looming?
\n<\/strong>Canada\u2019s economic growth is slowing, with gross domestic product (GDP) increasing by 0.6% year over year. Weak growth is expected in 2026 due to a strained labour market and the repercussions of the conflict in Iran.<\/p>\n

Similarly, economic growth is decelerating in the US, with its GDP up 0.7% year over year. Growth is forecast to be subdued in 2026 due to the war in Iran.<\/p>\n

If this conflict drags on for several months, economies could face a period of stagflation, characterized by economic stagnation combined with persistent inflation.<\/p>\n

Markets <\/strong>in the first quarter of 2026 <\/strong><\/h2>\n

Equities
\n<\/strong>The war in Iran has caused significant market volatility. Equities rose sharply through the end of February, followed by a considerable decline in March.<\/p>\n

The MSCI All Country World Equity Index recorded a return of -1.5% in Canadian dollars, primarily due to a 12.0% drop in the value of \u201cMagnificent Seven\u201d shares. Stocks from developed countries (MSCI EAFE), such as those in Europe and Asia, posted a performance of 0.5%, while emerging markets generated a return of 1.6%, all in Canadian dollars.<\/p>\n

Moreover, Canada\u2019s main index (S&P\/TSX) stood out with a return of 4.0%, largely driven by substantial gains in the gold and silver sector (11.0%) as well as the energy sector (42.1%).<\/p>\n

Bonds
\n<\/strong>Bond interest rates increased, mainly due to concerns regarding a potential rise in inflation, triggered by the conflict in Iran. Consequently, the FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index posted a modest return of 0.1%.<\/p>\n

Q1 2026 B\u00e2tirente Fund performance
\n<\/strong>B\u00e2tirente Diversified Funds: between 0.3% and -0.8% (from least risky to most risky)
\nTreasury Multi Fund: 0.5%
\nBond Multi Fund: 0.4%
\nGlobal Equity Multi\u00a0Fund: -1.4%
\nCanadian Equity Multi Fund: 6.4%
\nGlobal Small Cap Equity Multi\u00a0Fund: -5.1%<\/p>\n

2026 market outlook<\/strong><\/h2>\n

The US is poised to play a pivotal role in the markets during the coming quarters of 2026. The Trump administration could be the source of increased volatility.<\/p>\n

Key risks to monitor include:<\/p>\n

    \n
  • The war in Iran could lead to a resurgence of inflation and weak economic growth, hallmarks of stagflation. Various geopolitical factors continue to raise concerns, including the situation in Venezuela and the conflict in Ukraine.<\/li>\n
  • After three years of strong performance, stock markets are trading at high valuations.<\/li>\n
  • The US midterm elections are approaching; historically, this period is accompanied by lower stock market returns.<\/li>\n
  • The imposition of new tariffs remains a possibility.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    If the conflict in Iran were to end quickly, the risk of stagflation could be avoided. Under such a scenario, most asset classes would be expected to advance, with the exception of oil, whose price could fall sharply.<\/p>\n

    Given the current market environment, it\u2019s essential to adopt a portfolio diversification strategy, such as that offered by B\u00e2tirente Funds.<\/strong><\/p>\n

    Sources: Bloomberg and\u00a0Desjardins\u00a0Financial Security<\/em><\/p>\n

    *Jean-Fran\u00e7ois Dumais has worked as an Investment Strategy Manager at B\u00e2tirente since 2019. Along with a Master of Business Administration (MBA) degree (Finance specialization), he has over 20 years\u2019 experience in financial markets.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Jean-Fran\u00e7ois Dumais, Investment Strategy Manager at the B\u00e2tirente financial services firm, shares our funds\u2019 performance along with his insights on the economy and financial markets. 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