Our funds at a glance

13 Apr 2026 | Your money

Our funds at a glance
Jean-François Dumais*, Investment Strategy Manager at the Bâtirente financial services firm, shares our funds’ performance along with his insights on the economy and financial markets. This edition provides an update for the first quarter of 2026 and discusses the potential impacts of the war in Iran.

The economy in 2026

Inflation On February 28, 2026, Canada’s inflation rate stood at 1.8%. This rate was below the 2% target, after peaking at 8.1% during the summer of 2022. In the United States, the inflation rate was 2.4% on the same date. It should be noted that inflation could rise significantly due to the consequences of the conflict in Iran. Policy rates Since the end of 2024, the Bank of Canada lowered its policy rate by 0.25% four times, bringing it from 3.25% down to 2.25%. Due to hostilities in Iran, the market now anticipates increases in the key interest rate. In the United States, the Federal Reserve (Fed) reduced its policy rate by 0.25% on three occasions, decreasing it from 4.50% to 3.75%. Although further reductions had been considered for 2026, this prospect is no longer on the table given the potential inflationary risks stemming from the war in Iran. Is a recession looming? Canada’s economic growth is slowing, with gross domestic product (GDP) increasing by 0.6% year over year. Weak growth is expected in 2026 due to a strained labour market and the repercussions of the conflict in Iran. Similarly, economic growth is decelerating in the US, with its GDP up 0.7% year over year. Growth is forecast to be subdued in 2026 due to the war in Iran. If this conflict drags on for several months, economies could face a period of stagflation, characterized by economic stagnation combined with persistent inflation.

Markets in the first quarter of 2026

Equities The war in Iran has caused significant market volatility. Equities rose sharply through the end of February, followed by a considerable decline in March. The MSCI All Country World Equity Index recorded a return of -1.5% in Canadian dollars, primarily due to a 12.0% drop in the value of “Magnificent Seven” shares. Stocks from developed countries (MSCI EAFE), such as those in Europe and Asia, posted a performance of 0.5%, while emerging markets generated a return of 1.6%, all in Canadian dollars. Moreover, Canada’s main index (S&P/TSX) stood out with a return of 4.0%, largely driven by substantial gains in the gold and silver sector (11.0%) as well as the energy sector (42.1%). Bonds Bond interest rates increased, mainly due to concerns regarding a potential rise in inflation, triggered by the conflict in Iran. Consequently, the FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index posted a modest return of 0.1%. Q1 2026 Bâtirente Fund performance Bâtirente Diversified Funds: between 0.3% and -0.8% (from least risky to most risky) Treasury Multi Fund: 0.5% Bond Multi Fund: 0.4% Global Equity Multi Fund: -1.4% Canadian Equity Multi Fund: 6.4% Global Small Cap Equity Multi Fund: -5.1%

2026 market outlook

The US is poised to play a pivotal role in the markets during the coming quarters of 2026. The Trump administration could be the source of increased volatility. Key risks to monitor include:
  • The war in Iran could lead to a resurgence of inflation and weak economic growth, hallmarks of stagflation. Various geopolitical factors continue to raise concerns, including the situation in Venezuela and the conflict in Ukraine.
  • After three years of strong performance, stock markets are trading at high valuations.
  • The US midterm elections are approaching; historically, this period is accompanied by lower stock market returns.
  • The imposition of new tariffs remains a possibility.
If the conflict in Iran were to end quickly, the risk of stagflation could be avoided. Under such a scenario, most asset classes would be expected to advance, with the exception of oil, whose price could fall sharply. Given the current market environment, it’s essential to adopt a portfolio diversification strategy, such as that offered by Bâtirente Funds. Sources: Bloomberg and Desjardins Financial Security *Jean-François Dumais has worked as an Investment Strategy Manager at Bâtirente since 2019. Along with a Master of Business Administration (MBA) degree (Finance specialization), he has over 20 years’ experience in financial markets.

Jean-François Dumais*, Investment Strategy Manager at the Bâtirente financial services firm, shares our funds’ performance along with his insights on the economy and financial markets. This edition provides an update for the first quarter of 2026 and discusses the potential impacts of the war in Iran.

The economy in 2026

Inflation
On February 28, 2026, Canada’s inflation rate stood at 1.8%. This rate was below the 2% target, after peaking at 8.1% during the summer of 2022. In the United States, the inflation rate was 2.4% on the same date. It should be noted that inflation could rise significantly due to the consequences of the conflict in Iran.

Policy rates
Since the end of 2024, the Bank of Canada lowered its policy rate by 0.25% four times, bringing it from 3.25% down to 2.25%. Due to hostilities in Iran, the market now anticipates increases in the key interest rate.

In the United States, the Federal Reserve (Fed) reduced its policy rate by 0.25% on three occasions, decreasing it from 4.50% to 3.75%. Although further reductions had been considered for 2026, this prospect is no longer on the table given the potential inflationary risks stemming from the war in Iran.

Is a recession looming?
Canada’s economic growth is slowing, with gross domestic product (GDP) increasing by 0.6% year over year. Weak growth is expected in 2026 due to a strained labour market and the repercussions of the conflict in Iran.

Similarly, economic growth is decelerating in the US, with its GDP up 0.7% year over year. Growth is forecast to be subdued in 2026 due to the war in Iran.

If this conflict drags on for several months, economies could face a period of stagflation, characterized by economic stagnation combined with persistent inflation.

Markets in the first quarter of 2026

Equities
The war in Iran has caused significant market volatility. Equities rose sharply through the end of February, followed by a considerable decline in March.

The MSCI All Country World Equity Index recorded a return of -1.5% in Canadian dollars, primarily due to a 12.0% drop in the value of “Magnificent Seven” shares. Stocks from developed countries (MSCI EAFE), such as those in Europe and Asia, posted a performance of 0.5%, while emerging markets generated a return of 1.6%, all in Canadian dollars.

Moreover, Canada’s main index (S&P/TSX) stood out with a return of 4.0%, largely driven by substantial gains in the gold and silver sector (11.0%) as well as the energy sector (42.1%).

Bonds
Bond interest rates increased, mainly due to concerns regarding a potential rise in inflation, triggered by the conflict in Iran. Consequently, the FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index posted a modest return of 0.1%.

Q1 2026 Bâtirente Fund performance
Bâtirente Diversified Funds: between 0.3% and -0.8% (from least risky to most risky)
Treasury Multi Fund: 0.5%
Bond Multi Fund: 0.4%
Global Equity Multi Fund: -1.4%
Canadian Equity Multi Fund: 6.4%
Global Small Cap Equity Multi Fund: -5.1%

2026 market outlook

The US is poised to play a pivotal role in the markets during the coming quarters of 2026. The Trump administration could be the source of increased volatility.

Key risks to monitor include:

  • The war in Iran could lead to a resurgence of inflation and weak economic growth, hallmarks of stagflation. Various geopolitical factors continue to raise concerns, including the situation in Venezuela and the conflict in Ukraine.
  • After three years of strong performance, stock markets are trading at high valuations.
  • The US midterm elections are approaching; historically, this period is accompanied by lower stock market returns.
  • The imposition of new tariffs remains a possibility.

If the conflict in Iran were to end quickly, the risk of stagflation could be avoided. Under such a scenario, most asset classes would be expected to advance, with the exception of oil, whose price could fall sharply.

Given the current market environment, it’s essential to adopt a portfolio diversification strategy, such as that offered by Bâtirente Funds.

Sources: Bloomberg and Desjardins Financial Security

*Jean-François Dumais has worked as an Investment Strategy Manager at Bâtirente since 2019. Along with a Master of Business Administration (MBA) degree (Finance specialization), he has over 20 years’ experience in financial markets.

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