Each quarter, Bâtirente’s Investment Strategy Manager, Jean-François Dumais*, shares our funds’ performance results with you and offers his comments regarding financial markets. This issue looks at the first quarter of 2024.
Economy
Inflation
Central bank interest rate hikes of 2022-2023 continue to have an impact on global inflation growth, which is now well below the 8.1% peak reached in summer 2022. In Canada, inflation is less than 3% (2.9% as of the end of March 2024).
Key interest rates
We can see the end of the money tightening measure (i.e., increased central bank rates), and market players now anticipate several interest rate cuts coming as of this summer. But what remains unclear is when, exactly, the best time is to reduce these rates, with inflation still hovering above the 2% target of North American central banks. The latter want to avoid having inflation rise again if rates drop too drastically and quickly.
Recession
The aim is to avoid creating a major recession, which could be on the horizon if rates remain high for an extended period. We’ve already noticed a substantial slowdown in Canada’s economic growth. Year-on-year growth in gross domestic product (GDP) was 0.8 %, compared with 4.6% in the summer of 2022. Canada is likely headed for a recession, but one that will possibly be milder given the positive job market.
On the American side, we’ve also witnessed a slowdown in economic growth, although a number of investors believe that the American economy will be able to avoid a recession (two consecutive quarters of negative GDP).
Markets
Equity
The economic conditions described above have led to positivity in these markets. The all-country equity index recorded a return of 11.0% (in Canadian dollars); the global small cap equity index posted a performance of 6.9% (in Canadian dollars); and Canada’s main index (S&P/TSX) achieved returns of 6.6%. As in 2023, securities related to artificial intelligence are responsible for a major portion of index growth.
Bonds
We’ve been seeing rising rates, as market players have postponed the first of these central bank rate cuts to a later date. As such, the FTSE Canadian Universe Bond Index had a 1.2% negative return.
Equity Multi Funds
Bâtirente’s Canadian Equity Multi Fund rose by 7.6%, exceeding its benchmark index by 1.0%. The fund’s outperformance can be attributed to the right selection of securities.
Bâtirente’s Global Equity Multi Fund had a total return of 9.8% compared to its benchmark of 11.0%, owing to less pronounced exposure to the artificial intelligence realm.
Our Global Small Cap Equity Multi Fund meanwhile ended the quarter at 5.9% compared to its 6.9% benchmark.
Fixed income Multi Funds
Bâtirente’s Treasury Multi Fund performance was 0.3% higher than its benchmark return (0.6% compared to 0.3%). Moreover, Bâtirente’s Bond Multi Fund beat its benchmark by 0.2% (-1.0% compared to -1.2%). Once again, we saw the positive performance of these funds in relation to their benchmarks, mainly due to the shorter term involved for bonds, which is profitable in an inflationary context.
Repercussions for Bâtirente Diversified Funds
In the first quarter, Bâtirente Diversified Funds posted excellent returns ranging between 1.8% and 6.5% depending on their risk profile, i.e., from least risky (more bonds) to most risky (more equities).
2024 outlook
A number of central banks responded robustly in 2022–2023 by raising their interest rate to reduce inflation—a successful measure that helped restore investor confidence. Investors are hoping that the right balance will be found between economic growth and inflation.
*Jean-François Dumais has worked as an Investment Strategy Manager at Bâtirente since 2019. Along with a Master of Business Administration (MBA) degree (Finance specialization), he has 20 years’ experience in financial markets.